Fund Manager's Report

Fund Managers' Report As At 30th June, 2025

GLOBAL ECONOMIC REVIEW

Rising tensions in the Middle East, policy uncertainties, heightened trade wars and strained global supply chains increase risks to global economy and energy prices. Meanwhile, Inflation is easing globally, but some countries face persistent cost-of-living pressures. 

The US economy is expected to slow further in the second half of the year, pressured by tight financial conditions, increasing delinquency rates, and rising inflation risk amid ongoing trade policy uncertainty and escalating conflict in the Middle East. Recently, the US launched strikes on three nuclear facilities in Iran, further raising the risk of war escalation. If tensions intensify to the point of closing the Strait of Hormuz, energy prices could surge, with oil potentially exceeding USD 100 per barrel. The risks are likely to weigh more heavily on economic growth going forward.

China’s consumption shows some improvement, thanks to stimulus measures and online shopping festivals. However, this support could fade once the stimulus measures end or the festival period passes. Moreover, early use of future demand may lead to a slowdown in consumption in the coming periods (payback effect). Thus, to sustain the economic growth momentum, the government needs to (i) restore business confidence and stimulate investment, which will positively affect employment, and (ii) restore household wealth that has been eroded by the real estate slump. However, these efforts may face limitations due to uncertainties in US trade policy, population decline, and excess supply in the manufacturing and real estate sectors.

Euro zone inflation rose slightly to 2% in June, meaning consumer prices in the single currency area are now in line with the European Central Bank’s target of 2%. However, analysts have warned that external factors could still upset the disinflation trajectory, given persistently high services inflation, recent volatility in oil prices on the back of conflict in the Middle East and potential U.S. trade tariffs all cited as concerns.

The World Bank has lowered its global growth forecast for 2025 by 0.4 percentage points to 2.3 percent, stating that higher tariffs and increased uncertainty present a “significant headwind” for nearly all economies. It cautioned that global growth could be weaker than projected if global trade tensions escalate further.

Oil prices posted positive gains during the month, with Brent rising 8.18% to USD67.61/bbl, driven by renewed OPEC+ output discipline and rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which heightened concerns over potential supply disruptions.

DOMESTIC ECONOMIC REVIEW

President Bola Tinubu signed tax reform bills to overhaul Nigeria's fiscal framework, consolidating over 60 tax statutes into a single legal framework. The reforms aim to lower production costs and tax burdens, benefiting MSMEs and tax-exempt sectors, enhancing business efficiency and profit margins, and stimulating investment and GDP growth in H2:2025.

Nigeria and Brazil signed a USD1.00bn agreement to boost agriculture, food security, energy, and defense. Both countries aim not only to deepen their relationships but also to stimulate the real sectors of the economy by deploying over USD1.00bn mechanized farming equipment, training, and service centers across the country.

The CBN issued a directive restricting banks from paying dividends or making fresh investments in offshore subsidiaries. The restrictions specifically targeted banks that had breached the Single Obligor Limit (SOL) or had unresolved forbearance loans dating back to the COVID-19 era.

The Nigerian government secured a USD110.00mn emergency loan facility from the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) to bolster national food security efforts. The funding is aimed at enhancing food production systems and increasing resilience to persistent global supply chain disruptions that continue to threaten food availability.

The World Bank kept Nigeria's 2025 growth forecast at 3.60% YoY, despite lowering global growth to 2.30% due to trade tensions. Nigeria's outlook is stable, driven by gains in services like financial services, telecoms, ICT, and macroeconomic reforms, though the industrial sector lags due to weak oil production.

Nigeria’s headline inflation rate eased by 74 bps y/y to 22.97% in May 2025 from 23.71% in April 2025, signaling a return to the disinflationary trend observed earlier in the year. The NBS noted that the drop was driven by reduced prices in staple food items such as maize flour, wheat grain, dried okro, yam flour, soya beans, rice, bambara beans, and brown beans. 

The Nigerian economy maintained an upward growth trend, with Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 3.84% year-on-year in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2024, surpassing the 3.46% recorded in the fourth quarter of 2023 and the third quarter of 2024. Meanwhile, the GDP for the entire fiscal year 2024 expanded by 3.40%, compared to 2.74% in 2023. This growth was primarily driven by the Services sector, which grew by 5.37% and accounted for 57.38% of the total GDP.

NIGERIAN CAPITAL MARKET REVIEW

FIXED INCOME MARKET

At the June Monthly Bond Auction, the Debt Management Office (DMO) offered a total of N100Bn with total allotments at c.N99.999Bn, across the 19.30% FGN APR 2029, and the 17.95% FGN JUNE 2032 papers allotted at marginal rates of 17.75% and 17.95%, respectively.

Similarly, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), representing the FGN, conducted the last NTB auction of the month by issuing 91-day (Offer: ₦22.02bn; Subscription: ₦72.63bn; Sale: ₦37.98bn), 182-day (Offer: ₦40.0bn; Subscription: ₦63.56bn; Sale: ₦40.54bn), and 364-day (Offer: ₦100.0bn; Subscription: ₦1,097.38bn; Sale: ₦83.50bn) instruments with stop rates of 17.8000%, 18.3500%, and 18.8400%, respectively.

EQUITIES MARKET

In June, the NGX-ASI rose by 7.37% to print at 119,978.57 points, and YTD performance grew to 16.58% (previously: 8.60%) while market capitalization rose 21.01% to ₦75.95tn. The rally was fueled by greater investor interest in specific stocks, supported by relatively strong corporate earnings.

Also, the NGX Pension Broad and NGX-30 indices registered gains of 19.32% and 16.03%, respectively. Commencing the year at 1,826.89 points and 3,811.94 points, they concluded the period at 2,179.87 points and 4,423.04 points, respectively.

Furthermore, several companies paid dividends during the month as follows: Airtel Africa Plc|2024FY: N61.75k, Beta Glass Plc|2024FY: N2.95k, Dangote Cement Plc|2024FY: N30.0k, Japaul Gold and Ventures Plc|2024FY: N0.04k, and Industrial & Medical Gases Nig. Plc |2024FY: N0.80k, among others.

The chart below shows the trend of the NGX ASI and market capitalization:

FX MARKET

In the currency market, the performance of the Naira was impressive. Specifically, the Naira gained 3.54% m/m against the base currency to ₦1,530.00/$1.00 at the NAFEM window, driven by FDI supply and the CBN’s intervention. Also, it appreciated by 3.10% m/m at the parallel market to close at ₦1,565.00/$1.00.

Elsewhere, Nigeria's foreign exchange reserves fell by 3.22% month-over-month to close at $37.21 billion at the end of the month. Next month, we expect the Naira to perform similarly across FX segments, supported by ongoing reforms aimed at boosting investor confidence and maintaining foreign inflows, to improve FX market liquidity.

KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS

Find below the key economic indicators for your perusal:

JUN-24 SEP-24 DEC-24 MAR-25 JUN-25
Exchange Rate (₦/USD)               
Official (NAFEM) 1,505.30 1,541.94 1,538.25 1,538.66 1,530.00
Parallel 1,514.00 1,680.00 1,665.00 1,560.00 1,565.00
Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) % 26.25 27.25 27.50 27.50 27.50
Inflation Rate          
12-Mth Ave (%) 30.00 31.26 32.77 30.09 27.55
Year-on-Year (%) 34.19 32.15 34.60 23.18 22.97
Foreign Reserve (Billion USD) 34.14 38.06 40.89 38.31 37.21
Crude oil Price in the Int’l Market ($/barrel) 84.71 72.11 74.55 73.00 67.61
GDP Growth Rate (%) 3.19 3.46 3.84 3.84 3.84
NGX-ASI 100,057.49 98,558.79 102,926.40 105,660.64 119,978.57
NGX 30 3,710.32 3,661.41 3,811.94 3,921.32 4,423.04
NGX PENSION BOARD INDEX 1,771.41 1,717.03 1,826.89 1,890.00 2,179.87
Liquidity Ratio (%) 30.00 30.00 30.00 30.00 30.00
Cash Reserve Ratio (%)  45.00 45.00 50.00 50.00 50.00

 

NLPC PFA - RSA Fund I

The Asset Allocation and performance of our NLPC PFA – RSA Fund I as at 30th June, 2025 stood as follows:  

Quoted Equities 5%, Government Securities 63%, Money Market 27%, Cash & Others 5%. The unit price grew from N1.8884 in March, 2025     to N1.9976 as at 30th June, 2025; translating to a year-to-date positive growth of 10.91% and an annualized return of 22.00%.

NLPC PFA - RSA Fund II

The Asset Allocation and performance of our NLPC PFA – RSA Fund II as at 30th June, 2025  stood as follows:

Quoted Equities 9%, Government Securities 57%, Money Market 18% and Cash & Others 16%. The unit price grew from N7.4220 in March, 2025 to N7.8065 as at 30th June 2025, translating to a year-to-date positive growth of 9.21% and an annualized return of 18.57%.

NLPC PFA - RSA Fund III

The Asset Allocation and performance of our NLPC PFA – RSA Fund III as at 30th June, 2025  stood as follows:

Quoted Equities 6%, Government Securities 67%, Money Market 17% and Cash & Others 10%. The unit price grew from N2.2480 in March, 2025 to N2.3394 as at 30th June, 2025, translating to a year-to-date positive growth of 7.47% and an annualized return of 15.07%.

NLPC PFA - RSA Fund IV

The Asset Allocation and performance of our NLPC PFA – RSA Fund IV as at 30th June, 2025  stood as follows:

Quoted Equities 2%, Government Securities 72%, Money Market 20% and Cash & Others 6%. The unit price grew from N6.5774 in March, 2025 to N6.8108 as at 30th June, 2025 translating to a year-to-date positive growth of 6.75% and an annualized return of 13.61%.

NLPC PFA - RSA FUND V

The Asset Allocation and performance of our NLPC PFA – RSA Fund V as at 30th June, 2025  stood as follows:

Quoted Equities 6%, Money Market 88%, and Government Securities   6%. The unit price grew from N1.8203 in March, 2025 to N1.9241 as at 30th June, 2025 translating to a year-to-date positive growth of 11.98% and an annualized return of 24.17%.

NLPC PFA - RSA FUND VI - ACTIVE

The Asset Allocation and performance of our NLPC PFA – RSA Fund VI - Active as at 30th June, 2025  stood as follows:

Quoted Equities 2%, Government Securities 63%, Money Market 30% and Cash & Others 5%. The unit price grew from N1.6783 in March, 2025 to N1.7715 as at 30th June, 2025 translating to a year-to-date positive growth of 11.21% and an annualized return of 22.60%.

NLPC PFA - RSA FUND VI - RETIREE

The Asset Allocation and performance of our NLPC PFA – RSA Fund VI - Retiree as at 30th June, 2025  stood as follows:

Quoted Equities 0%, Government Securities 60%, Money Market 36% and Cash & Others 4%. The unit price grew from N1.5011 in March, 2025 to N1.5788 as at 30th June, 2025 translating to a year-to-date positive growth of 10.86% and an annualized return of 21.91%.

MARKET OUTLOOK & STRATEGY
  • Amid trade tensions and high policy uncertainty, the path forward for the global economy will be determined by how challenges are confronted and opportunities embraced. That said, we expect increasingly divergent growth and risk patterns across regions in July 2025.

  • Africa is projected to grow slightly in the coming period, with easing inflation and loose policy aiding recovery. Growth remains uneven, with service-led economies performing better than commodity-dependent peers. Inflation is expected to fall from 18.1% to 13.4%, creating room for selective rate cuts. Key risks include climate shocks, security concerns and tighter external financing conditions.

  • In the local market, Nigeria’s inflation is expected to remain softer compared to the 2024 average, due to structural reforms, the removal of protectionist policies, anticipated monetary policy adjustments, baseline effects, improvements in foreign exchange dynamics, and the fading impact of earlier government reforms, should support medium-term economic growth. Therefore, we project that interest rates may likely decline in the coming period.

  • We expect the sentiments across the financial market to be positive in July 2025, most especially in the equities market, as more investors will take positions in anticipation of half-year results and corporate benefits.

  • Given the declining yields in the fixed income market space, we expect the buying sentiment to be sustained at the mid and long end of the curve, pending when MPC will fully embrace the loose monetary policy, or when there is improved system liquidity, robust foreign reserve, and surplus balance of payment.

  • Our strategy in the coming period would be to increase our exposure to fixed-income securities, with bias for those at the mid and long ends of the yield curve, and scale up our exposure to variable income securities, at the same time, ensuring we balance risk and opportunity while diversifying across different asset classes, including our responsibilities of meeting all financial obligations as and when due.

NLPC PFA-RSA FUND I ASSET ALLOCATION AS AT 30TH JUNE, 2025
ASSET CLASS MARKET VALUE(N'MLN) WEIGHT(%)
GOVERNMENT SECURITY 226.60 63
MONEY MARKET 96.88 27
EQUITIES 17.24 5
OTHERS 17.90 5
TOTAL 358.62 100
NLPC PFA-RSA FUND II ASSET ALLOCATION AS AT 30TH JUNE, 2025
ASSET CLASS MARKET VALUE(N'BLN) WEIGHT(%)
GOVERNMENT SECURITY 97.52 57
MONEY MARKET 31.42 18
EQUITIES 15.54 9
OTHERS 27.21 16
TOTAL 171.69 100
NLPC PFA-RSA FUND III ASSET ALLOCATION AS AT 30TH JUNE, 2025
ASSET CLASS MARKET VALUE(N'BLN) WEIGHT(%)
GOVERNMENT SECURITY 120.11 67
MONEY MARKET 30.66 17
EQUITIES 10.04 6
OTHERS 18.19 10
TOTAL 178.99 100
NLPC PFA-RSA FUND IV ASSET ALLOCATION AS AT 30TH JUNE, 2025
ASSET CLASS MARKET VALUE(N'BLN) WEIGHT(%)
GOVERNMENT SECURITY 56.82 72
MONEY MARKET 16.18 20
EQUITIES 1.40 2
OTHERS 4.75 6
TOTAL 79.15 100
NLPC PFA-RSA FUND V ASSET ALLOCATION AS AT 30TH JUNE, 2025
ASSET CLASS MARKET VALUE(N'MLN) WEIGHT(%)
GOVERNMENT SECURITIES 0.56 6
MONEY MARKET 8.05 88
EQUITIES 0.58 6
OTHERS 0.00 0
TOTAL 9.19 100
NLPC PFA-RSA FUND VI - ACTIVE ASSET ALLOCATION AS AT 30TH JUNE, 2025
ASSET CLASS MARKET VALUE(N'BN) WEIGHT(%)
GOVERNMENT SECURITY 6.03 63
MONEY MARKET 2.87 30
EQUITIES 0.23 2
OTHERS 0.46 5
TOTAL 9.59 100
NLPC PFA-RSA FUND VI - RETIREE ASSET ALLOCATION AS AT 30TH JUNE, 2025
ASSET CLASS MARKET VALUE(N'BLN) WEIGHT(%)
GOVERNMENT SECURITIES 1.63 60
MONEY MARKET 0.98 36
EQUITIES 0.00 0
OTHERS 0.11 4
TOTAL 2.72 100