Fund Manager's Report

At the March Monthly Bond Auction, the Debt Management Office (DMO) offered a total of N300 billion, with total allotments of approximately N271.23 billion, across the 19.30% FGN APR 2029 and 19.89% FGN MAY 2033 papers allotted at marginal rates of 19.00% and 19.99%, respectively.

Similarly, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), representing the FGN, conducted the last NTB auction of the month by issuing 91-day (Offer: ₦80.0bn; Subscription: ₦38.85bn; Sale: ₦38.65bn), 182-day (Offer: ₦120.0bn; Subscription: ₦27.68bn; Sale: ₦24.27bn), and 364-day (Offer: ₦500.0bn; Subscription: ₦1,364.22bn; Sale: ₦745.80bn) instruments with stop rates of 18.0000%, 18.5000%, and 19.6300%, respectively.

In March, the NGX-ASI closed the month with a 2.0% decline, settling at 105,660.64 points. Consequently, the YTD return slipped to 2.66% (previously 4.80%), while market capitalization decreased by 1.44% to ₦ 66.23 trillion. The downward movements in the period under review were attributed to profit-taking activities of the short-term players and portfolio rebalancing.

However, the NGX Pension Broad and NGX-30 indices registered gains of 3.45% and 2.87%, respectively. Commencing the year at 1,826.89 points and 3,811.94 points, they concluded the period at 1,890.0 points and 3,921.32 points, respectively.

Furthermore, several companies announced dividends during the month as follows: Okomu Oil Plc|2024FY: N26.0k, BUA Food Plc|2024FY: N13.0k, Stanbic IBTC Plc|2024FY: N3.0k, GTBank Plc|2024FY: N7.03k, Zenith Bank Plc |2024FY: N4.0k, United Bank For Africa Plc |2024FY: N3.0k, Aradel Holdings Plc |2024FY: N22.0k, and CAP Plc |2024FY: N2.40k, among others.

The chart below shows the trend of the NGX ASI and market capitalization:

In the official market, the naira dropped as it lost 2.57% m/m against the greenback to close at ₦1,538.66/$1.00 despite multiple interventions from the CBN. In total, the CBN sold approximately US$1.03bn in March to stabilize the exchange rate amidst a significant surge in demand for the US dollar, which placed pressure on the local currency. Also, the parallel market rate depreciated by 4.70% to ₦1,560.00/$1.00.

Elsewhere, the CBN’s foreign reserve declined by 0.39% m/m to $38.31bn (as of 28/03/2025). This decline can be linked to CBN’s efforts to stabilize the naira. We expect further intervention by the CBN in the FX market to help sustain the naira at the current levels.

We anticipate Naira will maintain its positive performance across FX segments, supported by CBN’s continued USD supply to BDCs and DMBs, provided there are no adverse market shocks.

Find below the key economic indicators for your perusal:

The Asset Allocation and performance of our NLPC PFA – RSA Fund I as at 31st March, 2025 stood as follows:  

Quoted Equities 5%, Government Securities 55%, Money Market 27%, Cash & Others 13%. The unit price grew from N1.8011 in January, 2025 to N1.8884 as at 31^st March, 2025 translating to a year-to-date positive growth of 4.85% and an annualized return of 19.66%.

The Asset Allocation and performance of our NLPC PFA – RSA Fund II as at 31st March, 2025  stood as follows:

Quoted Equities 8%, Government Securities 59%, Money Market 16% and Cash & Others 17%. The unit price grew from N7.1482 in January, 2025 to N7.4220 as at 31^st March, 2025 translating to a year-to-date positive growth of 3.83% and an annualized return of 15.53%.

The Asset Allocation and performance of our NLPC PFA – RSA Fund III as at 31st March, 2025  stood as follows:

Quoted Equities 5%, Government Securities 70%, Money Market 14% and Cash & Others 11%. The unit price grew from N2.1767   in January, 2025 to N2.2480 as at 31^st March, 2025, translating to a year-to-date positive growth of 3.28% and an annualized return  of 13.28%.

The Asset Allocation and performance of our NLPC PFA – RSA Fund IV as at 31st March, 2025  stood as follows:

Quoted Equities 2%, Government Securities 72%, Money Market 20% and Cash & Others 6%. The unit price grew from N6.3801 in January, 2025 to N6.5774 as at 31^st March, 2025 translating to a year-to-date positive growth of 3.09% and an annualized return of 12.54%.

The Asset Allocation and performance of our NLPC PFA – RSA Fund V as at 31st March, 2025  stood as follows:

Quoted Equities 4%, Money Market 90%, Government Securities 5% and Cash & Others 1%. The unit price grew from N1.7182 in January, 2025 to N1.8203 as at 31^st March, 2025 translating to a year-to-date positive growth of 5.94% and an annualized return of 24.10%.

The Asset Allocation and performance of our NLPC PFA – RSA Fund VI - Active as at 31st March, 2025  stood as follows:

Quoted Equities 3%, Government Securities 65%, Money Market 28% and Cash & Others 4%. The unit price grew from N1.5930 in January, 2025 to N1.6783 as at 31^st March, 2025 translating to a year-to-date positive growth of 5.35% and an annualized return of 21.72%.

The Asset Allocation and performance of our NLPC PFA – RSA Fund VI - Retiree as at 31st March, 2025  stood as follows:

Quoted Equities 0%, Government Securities 68%, Money Market 24% and Cash & Others 8%. The unit price grew from N1.4241 in January, 2025 to N1.5011 as at 31^st March, 2025 translating to a year-to-date positive growth of 5.41% and an annualized return of 21.93%.

• The global economy maintains a solid, trend-consistent pace so far, supported by continued disinflation, softening commodity prices, and monetary easing in many countries. That said, we expect increasingly divergent growth and risk patterns across regions in April 2025.

• Africa's economic outlook is projected to show strengthening growth, driven by economic reforms, declining inflation, and improved fiscal and debt positions. However, some factors may offset these positive forecasts, including disruptions to global supply chains due to wars, violent extremism, social unrest, and the economic tightening that is inhibiting growth.

• In the local market, Nigeria's inflation is expected to ease slightly, with the naira stabilizing due to anticipated monetary policy adjustments, baseline effects and improvements in foreign exchange dynamics. Therefore, we project that interest rates may likely decline in the coming period.

• We forecast that Nigeria’s real GDP growth will increase reasonably to 4.00% in Q1 2025, up from 3.84% in Q4 2024. This will be driven by pro-market reforms & policies of the Government. We expect the sentiments across the financial market to be positive in the coming period, most especially in the equities market as more investors will take position in anticipation of more impressive Q4 2024 results and corporate benefits.

• Given the declining yields in the fixed income market space, we expect the buying sentiment at the mid and long end of the curve, as the MPC may put on hold the hawkish policy going forward.

•   Our strategy in the coming period would be to increase our exposure to fixed-income securities, most especially at the short, mid and long ends of the yield curve, and scale up our exposure in variable income securities, at the same time ensuring we balance risk and opportunity while diversifying across different asset classes.